That is half 3 of Jeff Goldsmith’s historical past of managed care. In case you missed it learn Half 1 & Half 2
By JEFF GOLDSMITH
Two main adjustments in medical health insurance ensued because the US well being system entered the 21st century- a strategic shift of well being value danger from suppliers to sufferers and the emergence of machine pushed managed care.
Insurers Shift Technique from Sharing Danger with Hospitals and Docs to Markedly Implicating their “Sufferers’.
After the 2008 recession, employers and their well being plans shifted technique from placing physicians and hospitals in danger by means of delegated danger capitation to placing sufferers in danger by means of larger affected person value sharing. Within the wake of the recession, the variety of sufferers with excessive deductible well being plans almost quintupled–to over sixty million lives. By 2024, 32% of the lives in employer-based plans (50% amongst small employers’) have been in excessive deductible plans no matter affected person financial circumstances.
The acknowledged intention of the Excessive Deductible Well being Plan motion was to encourage sufferers to “store” for care. In actual care conditions, nevertheless, sufferers discovered it troublesome or unimaginable to find out precisely what their share of the fee can be or which suppliers did one of the best job of caring for them. For an in depth evaluate of the literature on how healthcare “shoppers” battle to handle their monetary danger, learn Peter Ubel’s 2019 Sick to Debt: How Smarter Markets Result in Higher Care.
Employers and insurers, working collectively to “empower shoppers”, quickly shifted “self-pay” unhealthy money owed onto their supplier networks. Some 60% of hospital unhealthy money owed at the moment are from sufferers with insurance coverage. As a substitute of “purchasing for care”, shoppers discovered themselves saddled with nearly $200 billion in medical payments they might not pay, and hospitals and physicians ended up consuming most of it.
This escalating “insured unhealthy debt” downside compelled suppliers to rent income cycle administration (RCM) consultants to revise and strengthen their insurance policies relating to affected person monetary accountability, “income integrity” (which means crossing all of the “t’s” and dotting all of the “I’s” in every medical declare and ensuring care is coded correctly) and rigorously monitoring the movement of claims to and from their main insurance coverage carriers. Consequently many suppliers discovered themselves spending 10-15% of their whole working bills on RCM!
Medicare Benefit Permits Insurer Market Dominance
The motion from Ellwood’s imaginative and prescient of regionally-based supplier sponsored well being plans to market dominance by enormous nationwide carriers was cemented by the emergence of Medicare Benefit as essentially the most important and worthwhile medical health insurance market phase. In 2013, Medicare Benefit accounted for 29% of whole Medicare spending. A decade later, in 2024, it was 54% (of roughly a trillion greenback program). And till a federal crackdown on MA coding and cost insurance policies by the carriers, it was a 5% margin enterprise, considerably extra worthwhile than business insurance coverage, ObamaCare Alternate or managed Medicaid companies.
As Medicare Benefit emerged as the most important medical health insurance market, it was dominated by a cartel of enormous publicly traded carriers.
Six publicly traded carriers (United, Humana, CVS/Aetna, Elevance/Anthem, CIGNA and Centene) accounted for 69% of MA’s 34.6 million enrollment as of November 2024. Kaiser, the “founder” of the motion, added one other 5.5%. The highest two MA plans, United and Humana, account for nearly 46% of MA’s enrollment! Sixty p.c of United and CVS/Aetna’s medical health insurance premium movement and 90% of Humana’s now come from this single program, in keeping with a current Financial institution of America evaluation.
Nevertheless, owing to the aggressive promotional activism of consultants and personal fairness financed “administration providers organizations”, the median MA plan enrollment is lower than 2000 lives (!). Throughout the 2010’s, Medicare Benefit grew to become an trade in and of itself. A tremendous variety of small hospital and doctor sponsored plans are preventing over lower than 1 / 4 of MA enrollment, and, predictably, shedding cash on each subscriber (damaging 5% margins are typical). Some communities have as many as forty MA plans competing for his or her share of this profitable market.
The Rise of Machine Pushed Managed Care
The large nationwide carriers rely, in flip, on a fancy community of contractors to handle their Medicare Benefit care administration and cost. A shadowy trade populated with billion greenback excessive tech corporations nobody within the care system had ever heard of–with names like Emdeon (now Change Healthcare,), Equian, MultiPlan (taken non-public by Carlyle in 2024), naviHealth, Signify and Cotiviti–emerged to service well being plans with automated methods to evaluate hospital and doctor claims previous to cost.
These corporations used AI pushed machine studying to investigate and course of the movement of tons of of billions of {dollars} in medical claims. A big fraction of these claims are denied, both due to information errors within the claims themselves, or as a result of AI guidelines engines kicked them out for not conforming to always evolving medical necessity standards.
Prior authorization, a forty-year-old HMO expense management device for managing “elective care”, has been augmented by “potential pre-payment evaluate” utilized after hospitals have admitted and cared for sufferers and submitted insurance coverage claims. In response to the American Medical Affiliation, every practising doctor within the US is required to submit 45 prior authorization requests for his or her sufferers every week.
Hospitals noticed, in some circumstances, a doubling of claims denials or repricing in only a twelve to eighteen-month interval after 2016 primarily based on these automated “potential” opinions. This surge of machine-driven denials performed a serious position within the mysterious 39% plummet in hospital working earnings seen in 2016 and 2017.
A key issue within the wave of denials was the elevated centrality of hospital emergency admissions as the primary gateway to advanced and costly inpatient care. Upwards of 70% of sufferers in lots of well being methods are admitted by means of the emergency room and care is rendered to these sufferers on an pressing foundation.
With main care physicians withdrawing from hospital follow, selections to confess sufferers to hospitals have been more and more made by employed physicians or doctor contractors to the hospital, a lot of whom are “out of community” with the insurance coverage carriers, and beneath restricted management by the hospitals themselves.
After-the-fact denials by insurers typically lead to sudden larger payments to sufferers with excessive deductible plans in addition to important new administrative bills for hospitals to trace and contest the surge of denials.
UnitedHealth Group Makes its Transfer
Following the greater than decade-long non-public fairness rollup of those care managing tech corporations after the 12 months 2000 dot-com/tech inventory crash, a tremendous share of this shadowy sector ended up being owned by a single firm. In a shocking speedy fireplace $20 billion acquisition spree from 2019 to 2021, UnitedHealth Group purchased Equian, Change Healthcare and naviHealth. The US Division of Justice unsuccessfully challenged the most important of those transactions–the Change Healthcare acquisition– on anti-trust grounds.
By the point this blitz was over, United’s $19 billion OptumInsight enterprise intelligence subsidiary was processing one-third of all medical claims within the US with automated claims administration software program–a outstanding $1.5 trillion in well being supplier funds a 12 months. OptumInsight’s largest single buyer was United’s well being plans–63% of its whole revenues.
However OptumInsight’s different clients have been rivals of United’s medical health insurance enterprise (a lot for “vertical integration”). The RCM Business, on behalf of doctor and hospital suppliers, and Optum Perception have locked horns in what might be referred to as The Warfare of the Robots–as dueling AI methods fought over the documentation, approval and cost of trillions of {dollars} in medical funds. Within the conflict between Skynet Medical and the RCM trade, sufferers and physicians have been lowered to mere datapoints.
COVID produced what proved to be a short lived stop fireplace within the Warfare of the Robots. It is because the shutdown of routine care in hospitals throughout 2020 produced a multi-hundred billion $$ windfall in money movement for well being plans together with United’s. Denying care throughout a well being emergency would have additionally produced plenty of ugly headlines, so well being plans merely turned the denial machine off, in keeping with colleagues within the income cycle trade. Well being plans didn’t wish to be socked with a “windfall income” tax (for exceeding ObamaCare’s statutory medical loss ratio (MLR) limits. Nevertheless, when well being plans medical bills (so-called Medical Loss Ratios, or MLRs) started rising once more, the denial equipment cranked up once more, and the conflict resumed.
Physicians have been collateral injury on this conflict, as a result of an enormous fraction of their accessible follow time, as a lot as half of their whole hours, is now spent minutely documenting each single medical choice they make of their digital well being document system, feeding the AI denial machine information.
Digital well being data have been touted as a revolutionary device for enhancing medical productiveness. As a substitute, they’ve develop into an all-seeing surveillance mechanism- a 24/panopticon surveilling doctor exercise of behalf of huge insurance coverage carriers, and depriving sufferers of direct care time spent with their physicians and different caregivers.
Skynet Crashes!
It didn’t take greater than eighteen months for the historic Optum roll-up of medical claims administration software program and providers to explode in United’s face. On Feb 21, 2024, a shadowy Russian hacker collective AlphV invaded and crippled Change Healthcare’s information methods, shutting down $120 billion a month in healthcare funds. Solely eighteen months into proudly owning all this equipment, Optum’s information methods have been a sizzling mess, a extremely weak mashup of dozens of purposes and databases rolled up from the handfuls of smaller firms that have been a part of Change.
AlphV operatives impersonated a senior Change govt, stealing his login credentials. The hackers used these phony credentials to search out and exfiltrate (e.g. obtain and steal) about 8 terabytes of well being claims data, together with personally identifiable well being data on 100 million Individuals. Then they deleted Change’s back-up recordsdata so they might not course of medical claims. United paid a $22 million ransom cost to revive their recordsdata, but it surely was stolen by one in all AlphV’s members and their methods remained offline for months!
The impact was markedly uneven relying on the place suppliers have been situated and who they contracted with. Some hospital methods whose medical health insurance payers used different distributors than Change noticed no financial hurt. Different noticed 100% of their money movement crash to zero {dollars} and commenced incurring, in some circumstances, seven or eight determine weekly working losses. Doctor practices all throughout the US have been crippled, and house owners have been placing their payrolls for nurses and physicians on their private bank cards or acquiring private loans from their banks.
The Change outage was slowly restored over a 4 month interval. United/Optum has admitted to date to $3 billion in direct bills for restoring their information methods. Lawsuits looking for to recuperate damages from United for the additional value of months of submitting and monitoring paper medical claims stay unresolved.
Whereas 100 million sufferers and their households skilled violations of their medical privateness, the Change hack revealed a serious nationwide safety problem. Absolutely one-third of all medical funds and one fifth of US GDP have been flowing by means of a single non-public firm’s leaky pipes. Overseas hackers have at the moment the aptitude of reaching into United’s information methods and mainly crippling the US healthcare system. After a scorching Might Senate Finance Committee listening to, the US Congress took no motion to shut this gaping gap in information safety for a key piece of US infrastructure. Skynet Medical is now again in operation.
Managed Care within the 21st Century
A managed care motion which started greater than seventy years in the past by empowering clinicians to handle take care of populations of their communities inside a hard and fast finances has devolved, by levels, into an more and more data-driven money administration system run by AI on behalf of huge, publicly traded well being care conglomerates. Physicians pay an enormous tax in time diverted from affected person care, and sufferers bear an unpredictable and unmanageable stage of financial danger for well being care over which they’ve restricted or no management. And a managed care trade devoted to lowering healthcare prices added tens of billions in administrative bills to hospitals and different care suppliers.
The early levels of this devolution spawned profitable, prime quality built-in well being methods and well being plans in some elements of the nation. Nevertheless, the final decade has seen an enormous consolidation of medical health insurance within the fingers of a small variety of immense corporations, by means of the explosive development of the Medicare Benefit program.
In its current 10Q SEC submitting, after complaining about suppliers’ aggressive coding practices and growing Medicare utilization, United mentioned, “We endeavor to mitigate these will increase by participating hospitals, physicians and shoppers with data and serving to them make clinically sound selections . . .” This useful “recommendation” from United’s AI pushed claims administration system guarantees to revive United’s lagging earnings development.
Clinicians and hospitals are growing managed by machines, not colleagues and their selections dictated by algorithms they by no means see, quite than considerate medical tradition and human values. Dr. Ellwood is probably going rolling over in his grave.
Jeff Goldsmith is a veteran well being care futurist, President of Well being Futures Inc and common THCB Contributor. This comes from his private substack